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One big tailwind is falling energy costs. Gas prices at the pump, which averaged $5 in mid-2022, had fallen to $3 at the end of 2025, and they're projected to fall further thanks to easing global demand growth and increased supply.

Venezuela's reentry into global oil markets following the recent U.S. military action could mean a significant further boost to supply. Lower fuel costs ripple through the economy, cutting transportation expenses and boosting consumer spending power, and acting as a catalyst for growth.

Another economic tailwind could come from monetary policy. With President Trump expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair in the coming few months, markets are anticipating a more rate-cut-friendly leadership tone. If the new Fed chief signals even a moderately easier path, it could spark renewed enthusiasm in rate-sensitive sectors like housing, financials, and small caps.

The Trump administration remains decidedly pro-business, with three full years left in this term to push for corporate-friendly tax and regulatory policies. Business confidence tends to strengthen when firms can plan around stable or lower tax rates, and that confidence often lifts stock prices. Meanwhile, several undervalued sectors have become attractively priced, including regional banks and real estate.

Even in technology, which has dominated this market cycle, the AI trade looks far more attractive today than it did just a few months ago. From late summer through December, many small to mid-sized AI players saw their stock prices sliced in half, some down 40% to 50% from their highs. That kind of correction creates promising opportunities for long-term investors. Remember, innovative technology rarely appreciates in a straight line. In Facebook's early public years, its shares fell by about 50% from their 2012 IPO price of $38; Meta, as the company is now called, currently trades at more than $600 per share.

The takeaway: Don't let short-term market jitters obscure what is broadly a bright picture. With easing energy costs, potential friendlier monetary policy ahead, and attractive valuations across several sectors, 2026 could very well be a year of opportunity. For investors with patience and perspective, there's a lot to like in the market right now. Don't hesitate to reach out to us if you'd like to discuss the investment opportunities we see.

One reason is that the selloff, dubbed the "AI wobble," lowered the stock prices of some great companies. Another is that there are a number of potential catalysts that could reward those who are properly positioned.

During the November rout, AI chipmaker Nvidia fell 12.6%, while Microsoft dipped 4.8% and Oracle plunged roughly 23% as concerns grew around companies' AI spending and the massive borrowing being used to fund that spending. AMD, Tesla, Palantir and others all saw sharp mid‑month drops tied to the AI concerns.

Despite a market rebound in late November and early December rebound, some of the marquee November losers, including Nvidia 11, Amazon 8, and Microsoft 19, still sit well below their pre-November peaks. And many smaller stocks are "on sale" as well.

But I also see a number of factors that could spur the broad market upward. One is the likelihood of more interest-rate cuts. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next three meetings, and possibly beyond that.

A dramatic drop in interest rates in the coming year could spur the economy enormously. It could cause a big pop in the battered real estate market, where refinancing, home sales and new construction would boost banks, materials suppliers and other sectors. Lower interest rates may also spur corporate mergers, which could spell impressive gains for shareholders in, say, smaller tech companies that are acquired at premium prices.

Other potential catalysts are further off investors' radar. Bitcoin has plunged since early October from $123,000 to $85,000. Should cryptocurrencies continue to weaken, many investors could bail. And a lot of that converted cash would likely be put to work in the stock market, pushing up prices.

So what should investors be doing now? First, make sure your money is at work in the market. Seeking safety on the sidelines doesn't work in a long-term strategy. Big jumps in stock prices happen quickly, so if you're waiting for a perfect situation you may wind up being late to the party.

I believe in diversified core portfolios made up of larger, well-established companies. But I also believe we're very early in the AI revolution, and while no investment is immune from risk, aggressively positioning a small portion of a portfolio in promising tech companies here could really pay off in the years to come.

Please reach out to us if you'd like a review of your investment portfolio or if you'd like to discuss some of the current opportunities I see in the market.

In sports, that means not worrying about things like your opponent's record or whether the crowd is cheering for you. Instead, you focus on what you can do: study film, know your assignments, and execute the game plan.

Investing works the same way. There are countless forces in the markets that we simply cannot control. The past couple of weeks have reminded us of that. The Supreme Court is weighing the legality of President Trump's global tariffs, and the justices' skepticism suggests the policies may be overturned in the coming months. But they could just as easily surprise us. We can't control the outcome.

We also can't control the government shutdown, when it ends, or whether the Federal Reserve decides to continue cutting interest rates. These are distractions, just like worrying about the other team's strengths on Friday night.

What we can control are our investment decisions. The most important of these is balancing your long-term goals with your tolerance for risk. That's why portfolio diversification matters. You never want too many of your eggs in one basket.

Last week drove that point home. Over the past year, Microsoft rose about 140% and Meta climbed sharply as well. But since late October, Microsoft is down more than 8%, and Meta has fallen 17%. Many investors who were overweight in those positions felt that decline. The drop is part of a broader cooling-off in the artificial-intelligence sector. Meta has been pouring billions into AI to secure its role in the future of the technology. Normally, Wall Street rewards that vision. But record revenues were overshadowed by a $16 billion tax hit and concerns about future earnings pressure.

Which brings us to another lesson shared by both football and investing: Be ready to take advantage of opportunities when they come. The economy remains strong, interest rates are falling, and the recent pullback has put some high-quality companies "on sale." If adding or rebalancing positions like Microsoft or Meta fits your long-term strategy, now may be an opportune time to review the portfolio.

If you'd like to discuss where opportunities may align with your goals, don't hesitate to reach out. We're here to help ensure your investments are positioned to support your financial future.

Uncertainty like this places stress on employers and the larger economy. At the same time, the job market has been weakening and inflation remains somewhat high. But the stock market has pretty much ignored all of it: The S&P 500 index is up more than 14% so far this year. At the same time, 10 companies make up nearly 40% of the entire index's market value. That means that S&P's performance is heavily dependent on a small handful of mega-cap stocks, mostly in technology and AI-driven sectors. If those leaders stumble, the pain for investors who own the index would be amplified.

The bottom line is that even though the stock market seems strong, that could change fast, especially if unexpectedly bad economic data are released. So what should longterm investors be doing now?

First, avoid speculation. We're in an era of groundbreaking technology, including artificial intelligence, and it has a lot of investors dreaming of scoring quick riches by buying the right stock. But smart investors will avoid chasing risky stocks or sectors that could be whipsawed by interest-rate changes, government actions, or a general market selloff. The crowded nature of AI and tech means valuation risk is already elevated. Don't overcommit to "next big thing" stories.

Second, make sure your portfolio is properly diversified. The concentration risk in the S&P 500 means that owning broad index funds isn't as diversified as many believe. Having a qualified financial advisor look at your portfolio makeup is the surest way to learn whether you're taking no more risk than necessary to achieve your target returns. A good advisor will be able to stress-test your portfolio, using software to determine how much it would drop in different market scenarios. What you want to avoid is drops so extreme that you'd be tempted to sell holdings prematurely, locking in losses.

While the market has risen this year, it's never a straight trajectory. The S&P 500 retreats by at least 5% three times per year on average. It's done so twice so far in 2025, first in March and then again in late spring. There have been two declines of at least 5% so far this year. When stocks go "on sale," you should be ready to buy, but only those with strong fundamentals such as reliable earnings growth, solid balance sheets and proven management. Many of the most prominent stocks are expensive right now but are on my shopping list in case their prices drop to reasonable levels.

Remember, stocks' upward momentum never lasts forever. In good times it's easy to become complacent about risk. Smart investors always keep an eye on risk, and in the long run they're typically rewarded.Don't hesitate to contact us if you'd like a professional review of your investment portfolio to identify unnecessary risk or opportunities you may not be taking advantage of.

Three major stock-market crashes occurred during October: The Panic of 1907, marked by cascading bank failures, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, which launched the Great Depression, and Black Monday, in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plunged 22.6% for its largest single-day drop ever. Is October special in some way? Not really.
It was May in 1940 when Nazi invasions in Europe triggered a rapid collapse in the Dow. Covid lockdowns sent markets plunging in March of 2020. And it was September of 2008 when the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered the first major plunge of the financial crisis. The truth is that markets can crash pretty much any time within a given year. And that's a good reason to make sure you're prepared, both emotionally, and in the structure of your portfolio. If you're unprepared emotionally for downturns, fear and panic can drive impulsive selling at market lows, locking in losses. And an overly risky investment mix worsens damage, undermining long-term goals, eroding confidence, and making recovery harder even when markets eventually rebound.

Preparing for market drops isn't especially difficult. One very basic step is to diversify your holdings. Many portfolios right now are top-heavy with big tech names, which have outperformed other stocks for years. While it's tempting to let those stocks ride, it's more prudent to spread investments across asset classes, industries, and regions. To maintain a diversified portfolio, you have to rebalance regularly. Many investors are overweighted to tech stocks not because they bought too many shares but because their existing shares ballooned over time. Regular reviews are important for making adjustments and maintaining a risk level you're comfortable with before volatility strikes. Finally, long-term investors should maintain several months' worth of liquid reserves so that during crises, such as a layoff or medical emergency, they don't need to sell stocks when the market is down.

To stay mentally prepared for market pullbacks, it's important to keep a focus on your long-term goals. Reminding yourself of your investment time horizon and the reason you want your money at work in the market can help you to avoid panic selling. The market will always have its ups and downs, but if you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1990, and reinvested your dividends, you would have had about $3,500 at the end of 2024. Obsessively tracking daily swings can amplify anxiety and lead you to make unwise snap decisions. Remember that investing is a long-term journey, and that market volatility is part of the ride. It's also wise to limit how much you check your accounts.

As autumn arrives, you might see spooky headlines rehashing October's crash history. Market meltdowns aren't tied to the calendar, but a diversified portfolio and the right mindset can ensure you're prepared for volatility whenever it occurs.

But the fact is, even after factoring in advisor fees, working with a skilled and experienced professional can deliver significant, measurable value. A recent study concluded that professional advice cam exceed 3% in net returns for clients of advisors. One of the biggest advantages of working with an advisor is that they can help you avoid emotional decisions that can seriously hinder your investment results, and thus your ability to achieve goals like a comfortable retirement.

A good advisor helps you stay rational and patient, encouraging you to stay the course instead of reacting to every market twitch or headline. That includes political headlines. It's natural to feel anxious about your portfolio if your preferred party isn't in office, or maybe overly confident if things seem to be going your way politically. But history shows that the markets don't move in step with whoever is in charge or whatever is trending in the news. It's your advisor's job to remind you that big investment changes based on political shifts rarely pay off, and to draw your attention back to your long-term plan. In today's super-polarized political environment, that service is more valuable than ever.

Financial advisors also add value by regularly rebalancing your portfolio: realigning your investments back to the target asset allocation that gives you the best chance to achieve the returns you need with the least risk. Many DIY investors allow their portfolios to drift too far toward riskier assets. That can backfire when the market turns and those investments drag down your portfolio.

An experienced advisor can potentially also deliver better investment results than most DIY investors. They have access to robust research tools, deep market knowledge, and investment processes that most individuals simply don't. They bring discipline to the investment-selection process, relying on data and analysis rather than emotions or hunches. That helps clients steer clear of fads and avoid costly mistakes.

Advisors can also deliver value through tax planning, including tax-loss harvesting and tax-optimized retirement-withdrawal strategies that can make your savings last longer. They can advise you on everything from insurance coverage to financing a house or a car. Finally, their services can save clients time and stress, freeing them from researching, tracking and worrying about their own investments and finances. Don't hesitate to reach out to us if you'd like to learn how we can deliver value to you.

Brokers can earn large sales commissions pushing life insurance schemes or investments that include complex "derivatives" or "leverage." Motivated by the commission incentive, these salespeople have learned to tune their product pitches to your personality. The successful ones have a script for every kind of personality type, from anxious to overconfident, from impatient to complacent. Behind the slick sales tactics, these investments often carry hidden risks and costs that can seriously undermine your long-term financial health.

It's common for "can't-miss" investments to be loaded with fees, surrender charges, and complex terms that are difficult for most investors to fully understand. The allure of "guaranteed" returns or protection from market losses is powerful, especially when markets are volatile and fear is running high. But these guarantees often come with strings attached, such as limited liquidity, caps on returns, or exposure to risks that aren't immediately obvious.

High fees can erode your returns year after year. Surrender charges may lock up your money for a decade or more, penalizing you if you need to access your funds. The complexity and lack of transparency can leave you exposed to risks you didn't realize you were taking, and tax disadvantages may further eat into your gains. And of course these products are often sold not because they're right for you, but because they generate hefty commissions for the broker.

History shows that the surest way to grow wealth is to patiently maintain a diversified portfolio over the long term. By spreading your investments across asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and perhaps real estate, you reduce risk and position yourself for steady, growth over time. Diversification cushions your portfolio against market shocks, while the power of compounding rewards patience and discipline. Diversified, patient investing may seem boring compared to the pitches from brokers hawking too-good-to-be-true products. But like the Nobel Prize laureate Paul Samuelson said, "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow."

Before committing to any investment, especially one that sounds like there must be a catch, consult an experienced, objective financial advisor who will put your interests first. A qualified professional can help you cut through the sales hype, understand your options, and build a portfolio that supports your long-term goals. Don't hesitate to contact us to talk about our time-tested investing approach.

Right now is a period of real volatility and uncertainty. President Trump's aggressive new tariffs, fears of a global trade war, supply chain disruptions, and concerns about inflation and slowing economic growth have triggered sharp market declines. At the same time, any hints of good news have sent the market soaring. That was the case when the U.S. and China announced temporary reductions in their sky-high tariff rates earlier this month. It adds up to whiplash, which can be hard to endure.

But staying the course in this kind of environment has always paid off. Even if you invested at the very top of the S&P 500 in 2000 or 2007, you'd have notched returns of nearly 300% by now. How long until this whiplash period ends? Of course, no one knows. It could end with the signing of a couple of trade deals in the coming weeks. It could also last four years. I don't think that's likely, but it can't be ruled out.

What I can say is that I'm optimistic about the stock market. The U.S. economy remains in decent shape. It's holding up so far despite the trade-war pressures. I don't think economy will be able to withstand the pressure forever, so it's important that Trump and our trading partners ultimately find a way forward.

Trade agreements are a potential catalyst that could get the market moving steadily upward once again. So are tax cuts that could come out of legislation that's moving through Congress; that would put more money in the hands of consumers, who would presumably lift businesses' revenues through increased spending. Real estate prices are coming down, which could spur more buying activity in that sector. And there are trillions of dollars of investor money on the sidelines. Once a sustainable market upturn starts, I believe a big chunk of money will move from safe money market accounts into the stock market, which would amplify gains.

If you have money in the stock market that you will need in the next year or two for whatever reason, a home purchase, or college tuition, for example, I advise you to reposition that money into safer investments. If your investment timeline is longer than that, stay in the market. As uncomfortable as this period might be, I expect that we'll eventually look back on it as a speed bump.

I believe the market has priced in the tariff news as well as the possibility of an economic slowdown resulting from the trade war. Now it's in limbo, uncertain what will happen next. Positive news would send stock prices rising. The best-case scenario would be a significant lowering of tariffs. That could come in the form of President Trump blinking and announcing the U.S. is moderating its policies. A more likely scenario is that a trade deal is struck with one country, prompting Trump to lower the tariff rate on that country. That would likely prompt other countries to try to cut their own deals.

In that scenario, the trade uncertainty that businesses and markets hate so much would quickly subside, and momentum, as well as the potential for stronger earnings, could very well cause stocks to rally sharply. The future remains unknowable, however. We don't know when or if such a scenario might unfold. And it's conceivable that things could get worse, with countries digging in and taking more retaliatory measures. My view is that the U.S. is the world's richest consumer market, and sooner or later foreign countries will cut deals to keep unfettered access to it.

If and when the market turns, it could rise far and fast. If you're not invested, you could miss the bulk of the gains. The sidelines may seem like a safe harbor right now, but the risk of being left behind is real. And remember that stocks are up more than 80% over the past five years. The market's correction provides an opportunity to buy stocks now at more reasonable prices.

This a time to make sure you're fully diversified. Many portfolios became very overweighted to tech stocks as they powered market returns over the past few years. And many portfolios are too light on financial stocks, which many investors have been avoiding. So your portfolio may need to be rebalanced. But now is the time to make sure you're in the market. That includes maximizing contributions to your workplace retirement plan. Now is the time to be in the market. Please call us if you'd like to discuss your investments.

The reason for the market's funk is no mystery. Many market watchers had believed that President Trump's tariff threats were a tool to negotiate trade agreements and other matters with other countries, and that they'd only be in effect briefly, if at all. The market is now grappling with the reality that tariffs, on Canada, Mexico and China, may be in place for an indefinite period of time. Trump could lift them tomorrow or leave them in place throughout his term. He could even raise them further. It all adds up to uncertainty, which businesses and the markets hate.

Combined with softening economic data and the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest-rate cuts, the U.S. tariffs, and retaliatory tariffs by other countries, have spurred fears of an economic slowdown. And those fears can become a self-fulfilling prophecy: If Americans start to feel economic insecurity, they'll likely cut back on or delay unnecessary purchases. That pessimism then hurts businesses and helps to slow the economy. A recession in the near future is not a given, but some economists now place the odds at 50/50.

The headlines have many investors wondering if it's time to get out of stocks for a while. As a student of the market, and based on my 25 years of investing experience, I can confidently say the answer is no. The U.S. stock market has faced many serious setbacks over the years. It's recovered from all of them, sometimes with surprising speed.

During the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the S&P 500 dropped 56%, and tool about three and a half years to recover from its low point. During the Covid pandemic, the index fell 34% in just over a month. But it took the market just 141 days to return to its previous highs. It's impossible, even for the smartest and most seasoned investors, to predict how long a downturn will last.

And that means those who've gotten out of the market can't predict when they should get back in. And that brings us to the primary danger of market timing: missing out on periods of exceptional returns. Investors who exit the market during downturns risk not re-entering in time to capture significant gains. Studies show that missing just the 10 best trading days over two decades can cut overall returns nearly in half.

If we had a crystal ball that allowed us to see when market declines would start and end, we would always be able to sell high and buy low, and we would all be insanely wealthy. But there are no crystal balls. Market downturns can drag on for months and years or reverse direction within days or weeks. Recoveries can turn out to be head-fakes. In real life, all this uncertainty can paralyze investors, leaving them on the sidelines while there's money to be made.

Here's how that might have played out for a hypothetical investor during the Covid pandemic. In February 2020, the investor had $100,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund. Covid fears intensified, and on March 23, the investor sold their shares at the S&P's low point. That $100,000 was now $71,500, and fearing more losses, the investor stayed in cash. By mid- August the S&P had fully recovered to its pre-pandemic high. Let's say that by late November, the investor is confident enough to get back in the market. But with $71,500, they can only buy a fraction of the shares they originally owned.

Had they kept their money invested, the investor would have been whole by May of 2020. Instead, having pulled their money out and put it back in, it would take them more than 11 years, assuming a 3% annual gain, to get back to $100,000.

The investor has now suffered a huge, self-inflicted setback that will make it a lot harder to reach their goals. They might even have to retire later than they'd planned.

Your best move right now: Keep your money working for you and think long-term. Stocks are the best way to beat inflation and grow your money enough to pay for everything you have planned in life. That being said, this is a good time to sit down with a seasoned financial advisor and review the holdings in your portfolio. You want to make sure you're well-diversified and have positions in stocks that can potentially do well in the years to come. Don't hesitate to contact us if you'd like to discuss your investments.