August 2011 is on pace to become the roughest and most volatile month for the stock market in almost three years. Where exactly will this correction bottom out? How long will buyers stay on the sidelines?

Two crucial questions await answers – but before turning to those questions, consider the developments that really hurt equities in the middle of August.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase forecasts depressed investors. On August 18, Morgan Stanley said it had cut its global growth forecasts, citing "policy errors" on the part of the U.S. and European Union. It now anticipates global growth of 3.9% for 2011 (down from the previous estimate of 4.2%) and it sees the global economy expanding by 3.8% in 2012 (down from its previous forecast of 4.5%). JPMorgan Chase revised its 4Q 2011 U.S. GDP projection down to 1.0% from the previous 2.5% on August 19; on the same day, Goldman Sachs cut its 4Q GDP prediction to 1.5%.1,2,3

Morgan Stanley stated that America and Europe could slide into a recession in 6-12 months – not one as severe as the downturn of 2007-09 given that many household, corporate and bank balance sheets are healthier today, but a recession nevertheless.1

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Coping with the market during a rough week for stocks.

 

As expected, a plunge. World stock markets swooned on August 8 in reaction to Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. long-term debt. On Wall Street, the DJIA fell 634.76, the S&P 500 79.92 and the NASDAQ 174.42. It was the toughest day on Wall Street since December 1, 2008, when the National Bureau of Economic Research announced America had lapsed into a recession.1,2

 Investors endured a shock like this last year. In spring 2010, the S&P 500 pulled back 16% from a peak. At the close on August 8, the index was down 16.8% from its spring 2011 high.3

 In 2010, the market healed within a few months. What happened after the 2010 correction? We had a sustained rally from September to New Year's Eve. The DJIA finished 2010 up 11.0%, the S&P 500 up 12.8% and the NASDAQ up 16.9%.4

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Many of my clients are privileged to have net worths of between $1 million and $3 million. And they’re fortunate as well in that they don’t meet the $5 million threshold for federal estate taxes.

But those that live in Tennessee need to be careful. The Tennessee Inheritance Tax applies to those with estates worth more than $1 million. And the tax can be significant—eating up as much as 9.5% of the value of a decedent’s estate.

A good way to limit the impact of the state tax is known as gifting of assets. Wealthy individuals can give away as much as $13,000 per year to one or more individuals. This gradually lowers the value of the estate, and thus it lowers the tax hit after the owner of the estate dies.

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Any financial advisor worth their salt will sit down with clients toward the end of each year and have an in-depth conversation about the investments in their portfolio.

Some clients love these sit-downs because they are a way to take stock of the year that’s ending and to get mentally prepared for the one that’s coming up. But for other clients, yearend reviews are just one more chore at a time of the year that’s already too busy.

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As the economy continues its slow recovery, more and more companies are earning more money, and passing their profits directly on to their shareholders.

How? By increasing their dividends. Simply put, the checks these companies send their shareholders each quarter are getting larger. In the nine months through October of 2010, 745 companies increased their dividends.

Not surprisingly, the news has made many investors change course and flock to this category of stocks. I haven’t had to change course: I have been a big believer in dividend-paying stocks for many years. One of my strengths as a financial adviser is selecting these stocks for my clients’ investment portfolios.

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