23 August 2011
Two crucial questions await answers – but before turning to those questions, consider the developments that really hurt equities in the middle of August.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase forecasts depressed investors. On August 18, Morgan Stanley said it had cut its global growth forecasts, citing "policy errors" on the part of the U.S. and European Union. It now anticipates global growth of 3.9% for 2011 (down from the previous estimate of 4.2%) and it sees the global economy expanding by 3.8% in 2012 (down from its previous forecast of 4.5%). JPMorgan Chase revised its 4Q 2011 U.S. GDP projection down to 1.0% from the previous 2.5% on August 19; on the same day, Goldman Sachs cut its 4Q GDP prediction to 1.5%.1,2,3
Morgan Stanley stated that America and Europe could slide into a recession in 6-12 months – not one as severe as the downturn of 2007-09 given that many household, corporate and bank balance sheets are healthier today, but a recession nevertheless.1