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A Bad Time to Be Over-Diversified

Written by Rob Copeland | 19 February 2022

You've heard of diversification: Spreading your investments around to avoid being over-exposed to any one type of asset. Done properly, diversification can help reduce the volatility of your portfolio over time while keeping you on track to meet your growth goals.

Then there's what we call di-worse-ification, a situation where an investment portfolio has so many stocks that the result is unnecessary risk without the benefit of higher returns. In fact, over-diversification can be a drag on returns. Imagine you bought Apple 30 years ago, when shares were still cheap, and held it; you'd have a massive return right now. On the other hand, if you invested in an index fund whose holdings included Apple, you'd likely have a far smaller return.

That's an over-simplified example, but you get the point. The more stocks you own, the more likely your returns will mirror the larger market's returns. Owning a limited number of high-conviction stocks, on the other hand, gives you a chance to beat the market. Of course that approach is not as safe as buying the market—there's no guarantee that high conviction portfolios won't underperform.

Over the past few years, there was less downside to owning funds with hundreds of holdings: Thanks to the federal government's fiscal and monetary policies, the broad market rose, and many index funds did well. However, the Federal Reserve is now pivoting to an inflation-fighting stance. It's expected to raise interest rates and wind down the bond purchases that have been propping up the economy and the markets.

As a consequence, we're moving into an environment in which it will be more important to distinguish between promising stocks and those that seem likely to stagnate or decline in the next few years. An over-diversified portfolio is more likely to include clunkers that will increase risk and dampen returns. Yes, broad portfolios will be more likely to match the overall market's rate of return, but as the first several weeks of 2022 have demonstrated, the jacked-up returns of the past few years have likely come to an end.

If you own shares of a big mutual fund, understand that the fund may not be nimble enough to quickly get rid of worrisome holdings. Many funds loaded up on work-from-home stocks while that category boomed, for instance. Those stocks have been crashing as Covid-19 concerns begin to wane. But large funds are wary of selling big blocks of stocks because, as they add supply to the market, they drive down the price of the stock before it's all been sold.

On a related note, many funds require each of their holdings to make up at least half a percent of their total holdings. That can make it hard for them to buy promising small-cap stocks, which typically have the most runway to grow.

The bottom line: Now is a good time to take a fresh look at your investment portfolio, to ensure you're confident in the sectors and individual stocks you own, to add names where you need to, and to potentially cut loose those you're not as confident in. Over the next few years, I expect that the market will continue to be volatile, but will reward investors who have constructed focused, forward-looking portfolios. Please don't hesitate to contact us if you'd like to discuss your investments.

A Big Market Shift is Underway

Written by Rob Copeland | 19 January 2022

The past several weeks has offered a good example of the effect that Federal Reserve decisions can have on the markets. With the central bank beginning to slow down the bond-buying that has helped support stocks during the pandemic, and signaling that it will soon begin raising interest rates as well, investors have begun to rotate away from speculative stocks and toward quality names.

The stay-at-home stocks that have boomed despite having lots of debt and little earnings are falling out of favor. Such stocks rely to a greater degree on borrowing, and are sensitive to interest-rate hikes, which increase the cost of borrowing. Thus, the long-term earnings potential of companies like Tesla or Peloton become less appealing when interest rates climb.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is down 7% since early November, and the poster child for expensive, shooting-star tech companies, the ARK Innovation ETF, is down nearly 40% since November 1. Meanwhile, the Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index Fund, chock-full of high-quality value stocks, is up 2%. Many of those companies were laggards as the hot tech stocks had their run, but the tables may now be turning.

In reaching for value stocks, investors are looking for companies with strong, reliable profits, low debt, and other measures of financial strength that allow them to do well in rising-rate environments. These kinds of businesses provide near-term cash flows, as opposed to the sometime-in-the-future cash flows of the highflying tech names. The stocks poised to benefit from the rotation are less sexy for sure—think banks and insurance companies instead of electric cars.

The anticipated higher rates, of course, are the result of persistently high inflation: The Consumer Price Index jumped 7% last year, its highest rate since 1982. The market is betting that the Fed will raise rates three times this year, and the degree of market volatility will depend in part on whether the Fed does more or less than that number.

But investors should think long-term. Rotations like the one we’re seeing can last six or 12 months, so there’s plenty of time to update your portfolio mix. An experienced investment advisor can help you to identify the best-positioned stocks going forward. If you’d like to make sure your investment mix is putting you in a position to succeed, don’t hesitate to get in touch.

Why I Don't Invest in Crypto

Written by Rob Copeland | 17 December 2021

Cryptocurrencies have taken off. Just 12 years since the debut of Bitcoin, the first crypto, the total value of all cryptocurrencies has soared to more than $2 billion globally. That's more than twice the value of U.S dollars in circulation.

Lots of investors have jumped on the crypto bandwagon, including celebrity billionaires like Elon Musk. I'm steering clear. In the short term, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are wildly volatile. In the longer term, they carry heavy regulatory risk—governments around the world very well might pull the rug out from under crypto.

First, let's look at crypto's volatility. Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is billed by many as a store of value akin to gold, but its price has gyrated wildly since its inception. Bitcoin's price has fallen by 32% since it hit a high of $69,000 in November, for example.

Why is crypto so volatile? It doesn't have inherent value like gold, which can be made into jewelry or put to other uses, or stocks, which represent shares of real-life companies. It's not widely used in legitimate commerce—you can't buy groceries with it, for example, nor does the IRS accept tax payments in Bitcoin. The value of crypto is based simply on what people are willing to pay for it, and there's no reason it couldn't go to a fraction of today's price. Could its price go through the roof? It's possible, but I see crypto as a very expensive lottery ticket.

The biggest risk to crypto's viability, however, is that it represents a challenge to governments around the world. As an anonymous currency, crypto is beloved by criminals, including the hackers who breached Colonial Pipeline Co. earlier this year, disrupting energy supplies in several states, and demanded Bitcoin as ransom. Its fans also include drug dealers and others engaged in illegal commerce. The most infamous example of crimes involving crypto was the Silk Road case.

So crypto is a direct challenge to governments' ability to fight crime. But more importantly, it's a challenge to governments' ability to control the value of their currencies and the strength of their economies. Central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve increase and decrease the amount of money in circulation in order to influence interest rates, control inflation and support the economy. A competing currency would undercut the authority that governments derive from controlling their currencies.

Even though governments around the world are still deciding how to regulate crypto, crackdowns have already occurred. For instance, the Chinese government has banned businesses from making crypto transactions. In the U.S., the House of Representatives recently passed a bill to create a working group of regulators, industry executives and others to start looking at how crypto regulation might work. Not surprisingly, crypto-industry lobbying groups are springing up to try to minimize regulations. I take it as a sign that industry players are scared. Back in May, Perianne Boring, the head of the Chamber of Digital Commerce, one of the crypto lobbying groups, warned the industry: "If we don't start planning and taking action soon, we have everything to risk."

One reason so many people are passionate about cryptocurrencies is the libertarian idea that they are free from government control. If that changes, how much luster will crypto lose? If U.S. and other governments take a heavy hand, will people flood back to the dollar?

While no one can predict the future, we can certainly gauge risks, and the risks involved with crypto are too great for the average investor to take. In my opinion, investors should heed the words of Bill Gates: "My general thought would be that if you have less money than Elon Musk, you should probably watch out."

Higher Interest Rates Could Hammer Stocks

Written by Rob Copeland | 18 November 2021

Inflation is back. U.S. consumer prices rose 6.2% year-over-year in October, the steepest increase in more than 30 years, as a flood of cheap money surging met consumer demand and supply chain bottlenecks.

Should that pattern continue, it would likely prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates. Tightening the money supply—or in plain English, making money more expensive—could cool the overheated economy and start to bring prices of goods and services back down. But what effect would rate hikes have on stocks? While there are many variables, it's quite conceivable that stock prices could suffer.

The current inflation spike can be traced to the Covid pandemic, which destroyed millions of jobs and disrupted global supply chains, and U.S. policymakers' fears of an ensuing recession. To insulate the economy, Washington unleashed waves of stimulus spending, and the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low while buying up assets such as real estate loans.

Whether rising prices are a temporary phenomenon, driven mostly by shortages of supplies and labor, or a deeper problem rooted in too much money printing, is the subject of debate among economists. But even if the inflation we're seeing now is not deeply rooted, it could still do real damage to the economy. How? By influencing expectations: If businesses assume inflation will keep rising, they'll plan to raise employee salaries, and they'll raise prices to pay for those increases, setting a cycle in motion.

So will the Fed raise interest rates? And if so, when? The agency is currently in something of a bind, because it is tasked both with controlling inflation and maximizing employment. Right now the unemployment rate stands at 4.8%, well about the 3.5% rate of just before the pandemic. By raising rates too soon or too sharply, the Fed could reverse the employment recovery.
The markets' actions reflect a belief that the Fed will indeed start raising rates by the middle of 2022. That's a long way off, and a lot could change. But it's worth looking at the potential impact on markets. The effect of rising interest rates on bonds is fairly straightforward: Rising rates make existing bonds less valuable, since newly issued ones will pay more.

But higher rates can also hurt stocks, by making it more expensive for businesses to borrow money. Costlier credit raises the cost of doing business, potentially lowering corporations' earnings and ability to grow, and thus impacting their stock prices. Fed rate increases also affect market psychology; when rate hikes are announced, traders might quickly sell off stocks, sending the market down sharply. It's possible that we could see significant drops in certain stocks, while others will prove more durable.

How should investors prepare for the possibility of rate hikes? First, know what you own. Some investments are more vulnerable to rising rates than others. And bear in mind that market dips can be buying opportunities: It's always a good idea to have a "shopping list" of stocks that you can snap up when their prices are attractive. Please don't hesitate to get in touch with us if you'd like to discuss your investments.

Time to Make a Shopping List

Written by Rob Copeland | 13 October 2021

The stock market has been choppy for several weeks now, with the S&P 500 index down about 4% since the beginning of September. And with rising inflation, supply-chain disruptions and the fate of the infrastructure bill all weighing on investors' minds, there's no immediate turnaround in sight.

But the best thing long-term investors can do right now is to stay positive. Stocks' ups and downs are part of the reason they can be so much more profitable than bonds over extended periods. To collect what we call stocks' risk premium, we have to be patient: Over the long term, the market's rise has always made its reversals look like small road bumps.

It's human nature to get lost in short term trading. But it's long-term investing that can really make you wealthy. If you invested $100,000 in 1999 in a conservative portfolio of 60% S&P 500 stocks and 40% bonds, and you rebalanced regularly, you would have about $390,000 by 2021. That's an average compound annual growth rate of about 8%. And that's with you investing right at the top of the market, and going through the dot-com crash and the 2008-2009 housing meltdown.

If back in 1999 you invested only in 100% S&P stocks, with no bonds, you'd have more than $500,000 by 2021. I'm not suggesting that you invest only in stocks—they're so volatile that you would lose an untold amount of sleep. But the point is that long-term gains tend to obliterate short-term setbacks. "Time heals all wounds" is an apt saying not just for our emotions but also for the stock market.

The fact that the market rewards the patient doesn't mean you should ignore your investment portfolio, though. It's important to manage risk by rebalancing when one asset class grows too dominant. And we should keep our eyes peeled for the opportunities that market volatility can provide.

No one can say with certainty where the market will go from here. But stocks have gone more than 13 years without a major correction, so a pullback of 10% or more would not be surprising. But rather than panic selling, which is the worst thing you can do, long-term investors should make a shopping list of stocks with great 10-year outlooks. When the market drops, those stocks will be available at a discount. That allows you to buy more shares, which will amplify future returns.

Especially during tricky periods like this, it pays to have the guidance of an experienced advisor, one who's been through numerous corrections and crashes. Such an advisor can help you avoid self-sabotaging decisions and point you toward promising opportunities. Don't hesitate to reach out if you'd like to discuss your investments with us.

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A Bad Time to Be Over-Diversified

A Big Market Shift is Underway

Why I Don't Invest in Crypto

Higher Interest Rates Could Hammer Stocks

Time to Make a Shopping List

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